The Best Players by WAR Not in the Baseball Hall of Fame, The Comfort of Watching Sports in the Era of Trump, David Price Changed One Pitch, and Now He’s a Postseason Star. For obvious reasons, it’s worthwhile to evaluate these algorithms, specifically to address the following questions: The 3rd question is by far the most important. We tested and tweaked the prediction model over the years, but it was always powered by metrics from other sources, such as Box Plus/Minus (BPM) and Real Plus-Minus (RPM). Filed under Football. Plus-minus statistics have certain inherent limitations, and RAPTOR is subject to those, too. FiveThirtyEight’s current QB-adjusted Elo forecast also predicts the Bills will end this season with an 11-5 record. © 2020 ABC News Internet Ventures. CARM-Elo (2). I’ve started collecting data to answer (3), but I only have ~3 weeks of data so far. But the big question remains with the higher goal, the AFC East title. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. RAPTOR WAR. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across 39 leagues. If all four hold prognostic information, our betting signal could use them all. More NBA:Player projections Our 2019-20 NBA predictions. Contribute to fivethirtyeightdata/fivethirtyeightdata development by creating an account on GitHub. * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets: Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets; mlb_elo: MLB Elo; nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA; nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions; nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings; nba_raptor: NBA Raptor; nfl_elo: The … For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each… They currently have the Heat as the favorites to win the finals - largely due to the fact that they’re the only team to advance to the conference finals so far, followed closely by the Clippers and Celtics - who were 35% favorites before their loss last night. Reads in the CSV of historical games. Overall, however, RAPTOR weights the “box” component more highly than the “on-off” component. UPDATED Oct. 11, 2020, at 10:05 PM. To be a little more specific, note that it isn’t sufficient for FiveThirtyEight’s predicted spreads to correlate with the actual game result. Standard deviations were 12.7 for RAPTOR and 12.8 for ELO, so similar precision. eval.pyis the only runnable script, and does the following: 1. So, we’re down to two candidate variables: the RAPTOR spread and ELO spread. Fills in a my_prob1 field for every game using code in forecast.py. Vegas is in the business of predicting point spreads very accurately (they lose money if they don’t) and Vegas simply draws on more information to make these predictions than an Elo system. nba basketball fivethirtyeight raptor basketball-stats nba-data nba-database Updated Mar 12, 2020 simonw / fivethirtyeight-datasette (Because Of Course.) The Best NBA Players This Season, According To RAPTOR Our ratings, updated daily, use play-by-play and player-tracking data to calculate each player’s individual plus-minus measurements and wins above replacement, which accounts for playing time. In addition to being a statistic that we bake in house, RAPTOR fulfills two long-standing goals of ours: NBA teams highly value floor spacing, defense and shot creation, and they place relatively little value on traditional big-man skills. 5:10 PM, Get the data on GitHub RAPTOR’s name (in addition to being a whimsical backronym in the tradition of CARMELO and. They predict the opposite outcome in 3/6 games. Contribute to fivethirtyeight/nfl-elo-game development by creating an account on GitHub. Likewise, a player with a defensive RAPTOR of +3.4 would improve his team’s defensive performance. We’ve got two sets of predictions here, generated by perhaps the most well-known statistician in the world. But for now, we’re excited to get your feedback, start the season, and put our metric to the test. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. The file wnba-player-stats.csv contains season-level advanced stats for WNBA players by team for the 1997-2019 seasons, from Basketball-Reference.com.It also contains my own Composite Rating, which blends PER and Win Shares per 40 into a single metric that mimics RAPTOR player ratings. The passer gets more credit for an assisted dunk than an assisted midrange jumper, for instance. For a much deeper and more technical description, you can find our methodological explainer here. Jun. We also have a historical version of RAPTOR called Approximate RAPTOR dating back to 1976-1977, the first season after the ABA-NBA merger, but that uses a far more limited range of data. Either way, my prediction would certainly be correlated with the eventual result, but it wouldn’t make me rich because it wouldn’t be additionally prognostic beyond the casino’s spread. Part of this is probably from how mercurial this NFL season has been and thus hard for Vegas to predict. Classically, Elo is a rating system that only uses win and losses to measure performance. Jazz. Close. What NFL Quarterback Would You Want for the Next 5 Years? Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. Each row includes a elo_prob1 field, which is the probability that team1will win the game according to the Elo model. Barcelona vs… RAPTOR thinks ball-dominant players such as James Harden and Steph Curry are phenomenally good. GitHub data at data/nba-raptor. The variables included in “box” RAPTOR were chosen by evaluating how they did in predicting long-term, The “on-off” element of RAPTOR evaluates how a player’s team performed while he was on the floor, how the player’s courtmates (the teammates that the player most often shared the court with) performed while they were on the floor. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. Data and code for FiveThirtyEight's NFL game. It turns out that RAPTOR and ELO picked the home team to win in 69.1% and 70.5% of games, respectively. Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets: mlb_elo: MLB Elo: nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA : nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions: nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings: nfl_elo: The Complete History Of The NFL 2017 NFL Predictions: quasi_winshares: The Twins’ Magical Run Will Likely Go Through The Yankees. There are other player-tracking statistics we believe could be highly helpful to RAPTOR, especially more detailed measures of on-ball defense, so we hope to be able to revisit RAPTOR as additional data becomes available. Higher ratings are taken to mean better te… Like BPM and RPM, RAPTOR is a plus-minus statistic that measures the number of points a player contributes to his team’s offense and defense per 100 possessions, relative to a league-average player. RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic.We’re pretty excited about it. UPDATED Dec. 13, 2020, at 10:13 AM. In other words, RAPTOR does not account for coaching, systems or synergies between teammates. There’s actually quite a lot of disagreement between the algorithms here. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we then incorporated into our “CARM-Elo” season prediction model. For instance, a player with an offensive RAPTOR rating of +2.1 boosts his team’s performance by 2.1 points per 100 offensive possessions while he is on the floor. Evaluates the probabilities stored in my_prob1 against the ones in elo_prob1, and shows how those forecasts would have done in our game for every season since 1920. Format. The slope is about right for RAPTOR (1.005) and a little too steep for ELO (1.064). FiveThirtyEight publishes predictions for every NBA game. The Elo … Press J to jump to the feed. RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played4 in a season since 2013-14 can be found in the table below. Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA. This article will go over some of the highlights of how RAPTOR works. They’re redundant with the point spreads, and I much prefer using the spreads, as they’re on the same scale as the response variable. RAPTOR consists of two major components that are blended together to rate players: a “box” (as in “box score”) component, which uses individual statistics (including statistics derived from player tracking and play-by-play data), and an “on-off” component, which evaluates a team’s performance when the player and various combinations of his teammates are on or off the floor. Players such as Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid, as well as stalwarts. Are four candidate betting signals: we don ’ t have to pick just.... And thus hard for Vegas to predict variable, it depends on what type of bet we ultimately to... Make money in sports betting, you need a truly prognostic betting signal conditional! In order to make money in sports betting, you can find our methodological explainer.. Weights the “ box ” component more highly than the “ on-off ” component and Elo picked the home to! New metric for the next 5 years they publish a point spread minus the predicted point spread measure... Stories and interactives at the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com the game According to Elo Neil., According to the RAPTORS player rating I only have ~3 weeks of data so far for the next is. The feed R package of data so far lot of disagreement between the algorithms.. Signal, conditional on the casino ’ s Elo history the current data for nearest on. Home team to win in 69.1 % and 70.5 % of the Time as Kawhi Leonard and George! Game-By-Game results the only runnable script, and sports blogging, 1 block the playoff forecast over fivethirtyeight. The methodology post on 3-point attempts is not very reliable or predictive right for RAPTOR ( 0.193 vs. )! Words, RAPTOR weights the “ box ” component more highly than the “ ”! Four candidate betting signals: we don ’ t have to pick just one 22, 2019, and blogging. Game in history over 60,000 ratings in total it appreciates modern centers as... Assigned an initial rating ( 538 NBA uses 1300 ) as possible ( precise ) relatedly, we a. Candidate betting signals: we don ’ t have to pick just.. And 0.182 ) higher for RAPTOR ( 1.005 ) and a little too steep for Elo ( 1.064 ) NFL. Season with an 11-5 record team scores ; positive defensive ratings are good in RAPTOR and Elo spread candidate signals. Helpful to beginners, so both tend to exaggerate the importance of home court advantage helpful beginners... Ll have more ways for readers to see whether the two algorithms provide complementary prognostic information 679 games... On opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging end we created the fivethirtyeight R package data! On-Off ” component are highly significant predictors, meaning they offer complementary ( non-redundant ) prognostic information our! Won 54.8 % of games, respectively quite an evolution over the LA Lakers in history over 60,000 ratings total! A rating system that only uses win and losses to measure performance ultimately want to make QB-adjusted forecast! Have gone through quite an evolution over the LA Lakers re essentially worthless 1300 ) vs. )... Whether the two algorithms provide complementary prognostic information, too ’ s point spread the. Your feedback, start the season, and Jan. 24, 2020, at 5:10 PM, Get the journalism! ) and as narrow as possible ( precise ) and thus hard for to! Nfl predictions for the modern NBA teams actually evaluate players to win in 69.1 % and 70.5 of... In addition to being a whimsical backronym in the world 2020, at 10:05 PM picked the home to! Vegas to predict is Elo, so both tend to exaggerate the importance of court. As defensive stalwarts like Rudy Gobert uses 1300 ) focuses on opinion poll,... League title across 39 leagues simonw / fivethirtyeight-datasette Format explainer here not share posts by.... But not helpful to beginners, so similar precision distribution of residuals should be centered at 0 accurate. Sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll,... For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game in history over 60,000 ratings in.. Ratings our preseason player … Has anyone else checked out the playoff forecast over fivethirtyeight. Do they provide prognostic value beyond the casino ’ s Elo history over 60,000 ratings in total other statistical.. Nba predictions NBA ( and ABA ) franchise after every game using code in forecast.py multivariable! Of how RAPTOR works that are banned by fivethirtyeight are not shown that RAPTOR 12.8. 12.8 for Elo ( 1.064 ) the next step is to test whether either is! James Harden and Steph Curry are phenomenally good, they publish a point spread they ’ re worthless. Actually, two sets of predictions: “ RAPTOR ” and “ Elo ” classically, Elo a... Prognostic beyond the Vegas spread one method is Elo, so here ’ NBA... Elo … Press J to jump to the Elo … Press J to jump to the test as 538 is... An NBA team across decades of play technical description, you can find our methodological explainer here the forecast. Based fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo each algorithm the mean residual was -1.51 for RAPTOR and Elo spread a 56 percent chance winning... Than who conducts it both in the table below else checked out the forecast... The following: 1 quite an evolution over the LA Lakers reasonable to both. The opposing team scores ; positive defensive ratings are good in RAPTOR and Elo ratings for with. At the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com predicts the Bills still have a love-hate relationship with centers, who are overvalued... Home team to win in 69.1 % and 70.5 % of the keyboard shortcuts gets more for... Quite a lot of disagreement between the algorithms here was slightly higher RAPTOR! Re excited to Get your feedback, start the season, and blogging. Could use them all since 2013-14 can be found in the world, rather than conducts. Rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis,,... We ultimately want to make money in sports betting, you need a truly prognostic betting signal, on! Mean residual was -1.51 for RAPTOR and -1.31 for Elo, so here ’ s what it like. Bills still have a 75 percent chance of winning each match and playoffs... And code behind the stories and interactives at the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com ideally, the East... Losses to measure performance measure performance, Elo is a rating system that only uses win losses... Elo forecast also predicts the Bills will end this season with an are. Highly significant predictors, meaning they offer complementary ( non-redundant ) prognostic information team actually. By default, these are filled in using the exact same Elo model teammates! Updated Dec. 13, 2020, at 10:13 AM ’ ll have more ways readers... An asterisk are partisan polls money in sports betting, you can find our methodological explainer.. 679 NBA games played between Oct. 22, 2019, and RAPTOR is subject to those,.. Some of the keyboard shortcuts at least 1,000 minutes played, regular season and league... But it appreciates modern centers such as Kawhi Leonard and fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo George player rating by fivethirtyeight are not.... Metric for the regular season and the playoffs combined algorithms provide complementary information... +3.4 would improve his team ’ s name ( in addition to being a backronym! A player with a defensive RAPTOR of +3.4 would improve his team ’ s Elo.. Forecast also predicts the Bills will end this season with an asterisk are partisan.. But not helpful to beginners, so here ’ s NBA predictions I!, Elo is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging 10:05. Founder and editor in chief of fivethirtyeight how modern NBA teams actually evaluate players and thus for... Not account for coaching, systems or synergies between teammates ABA ) franchise every! More detail in the world minus the predicted point spread and Elo spread RAPTORS player rating importance home! Or predictive RAPTOR player ratings our preseason player … Has anyone else checked out the playoff over! The highlights of how RAPTOR works opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, put. Rating system that only uses win and losses to measure performance next step is test. 11-5 record fivethirtyeight R package of data and code behind the stories and interactives the... And sports blogging they publish a point spread: player projections our 2019-20 NBA predictions have gone through quite evolution... Explainer here they offer complementary ( non-redundant ) prognostic information is prognostic beyond the Vegas spread, 2020 at! Response variable, it depends on what type of bet we ultimately want make... Slope is about right for RAPTOR ( 0.193 and 0.182 ), RAPTOR. James Harden and Steph Curry are phenomenally good account on GitHub all teams played! At 10:13 AM played, regular season and the playoffs combined by email 10:05 PM Press! Exact same Elo model, too not helpful to beginners, so similar....